Browsing by Author "Jones, Lonnie L."
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Item Economic and Hydrologic Implications of Proposed Edwards Aquifer Management Plans(Texas Water Resources Institute, 1993-03) Dillon, Carl R.; Jones, Lonnie L.; Williams, R. Lynn; Jordan, Wayne R.; McCarl, Bruce A.The Edwards Aquifer underlies a large region in south central Texas extending from west of Uvalde to Austin. The karstic aquifer supports irrigated agriculture in the western part of the region, provides the sole source of water supply for San Antonio in the central portion and provides for spring flow-based recreation and municipal water supply in the eastern part of the region. In addition, spring flows and return flows from cities provide water supplies for downstream users and freshwater inflows to maintain productivity of bays and estuaries. The spring flows also support several threatened and endangered species unique to that ecosystem. Despite the varied and growing demand on Edwards Aquifer water, pumpage is unregulated since, according to Texas water law, ground water is a property right vested with the land owner. Throughout at least the past two decades, attempts to negotiate voluntary management plans to restrict pumpage have been unsuccessful, even though demand is projected to exceed average recharge near the turn of the century. A recent court ruling has increased the pressure for adoption of an Aquifer management plan. Acting on a suit brought to ensure spring flow and aquatic habitat protection under the Endangered Species Act, the court ruled that a management plan be developed and approved by the Texas Legislature by May 31, 1993. Should the Legislature fail, the court would implement its own plan. In 1992, two management plans were drafted by the Texas Water Commission (TWC) but were not adopted. Since Texas Legislature is considering plans similar to the TWC plans, a study was undertaken to evaluate the hydrologic and economic implications of these TWC plans. Both plans propose imposition of pumping limits based on water elevation in a reference well located in San Antonio. Four variants of the plans were analyzed using an annual economic/hydrologic simulation model of the aquifer. The model simulates water use by the agricultural, industrial and municipal sectors while simultaneously forecasting annual spring flow and year-end water elevations. Model solutions depict optimum water allocations among sectors based on economic welfare maximization. The model also accounts for uncertainty in the incidence of elevation-triggered pumping limits and recharge amounts. When the value of water is optimized in an economic sense, the model predicts an annual loss in regional economic activity of between $6.26 and $19.58 per acre foot that pumpage is reduced. Under a 1988 demand scenario, annual welfare is reduced between $0.73 and $1.57 million across the plans. The annual loss rises to between $2.38 and $6.60 million under estimated year 2000 demand conditions. Agricultural water use is the most pivotal: under year 2000 demands, irrigated acres decline by 32% to 84% while net agricultural income falls annually by $1 million (13%) to $2.5 million (36%). Simultaneously, the municipal and industrial sector welfare is reduced annually by between $0.8 million (2%) and $5.7 million (8%). The benefits from all management plans are increased spring flows at Comal and San Marcos springs and higher ending aquifer levels. However, none of the proposed plans is forecast to guarantee flows at Comal springs given a repeat of the 1950's drought. The model assumes that low valued users would allow higher valued users to displace their water use, a result that is unlikely in the absence of compensation. Thus, a rights structure was also examined where the irrigated agriculture sector (generally a low valued user) is guaranteed water usage at the 1988 level. The results demonstrate that while agricultural welfare is raised, municipal, industrial and total welfare is reduced by more than the agricultural gain. In other words, agricultural gains are achieved at the expense of municipal and industrial welfare. Equivalently, without an agricultural guarantee, the municipal and industrial gains are achieved at agriculture's expense. One set of results reveals a year 2000 agricultural use value equals about $19 per acre foot while non- agricultural values are about $109 per acre foot. The results suggest the desirability of simultaneously implementing water market mechanisms to allow water use reallocation along with plan-induced pumpage restrictions. An unchanging allocation of pumping use causes growing disparity in sectoral water values as demand grows ($90 per acre foot in the above example). The simultaneous imposition of pumpage limits, water rights and water markets appears necessary to maintain economic efficiency. The results show that allowing water sales through a market mechanism could return as much as $11 million annually, while allowing both water sales and leasing is worth an additional $1 million. Markets would allow economic agents to seek out the highest valued uses of scarce aquifer water resources and provide compensation to those users reducing their usage.Item Effects of LCRA Lakes on Riparian Property Values: Recreational and Aesthetic Components of Lake Side Housing in the Colorado River Basin(Texas Water Resources Institute, 1995-09) Lansford, Notie H. Jr.; Jones, Lonnie L.The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) manages the Colorado River Basin in a ten county area stretching from central Texas to the gulf coast of Texas. In its recent "Water Management Plan for the Lower Colorado River," the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRAb) stated: The "business" of water resources management in Texas, and throughout the nation, is in the midst of transition and transformation. The transition is largely the result of ever increasing demands and competition for renewable but limited water supplies and a growing awareness of the limits of "traditional" water supply management strategies. ... In response to new challenges and uncertainties, it is imperative that water management institutions, at all levels, adopt a balanced, flexible approach that gives due weight to all the conflicting demands on the water, including the heavy economic dependence of the rice farmers on historic uses of irrigation water, rapidly emerging public interest in recreation, and environmental values. (p. 1) The problem is that the total quantity demanded is increasing and peak demand for agricultural, municipal, industrial, and recreational uses occurs at the same time of year. Since the supply is limited in any given year, efficient water management requires knowledge of the benefits to the various user groups. The research described in this paper focuses on the user group whose benefits have received relatively little attention in the past. These are the recreational and aesthetic users who own property and live around reservoirs in the Lower Colorado River basin. This study employs a "hedonic" or "implicit" price approach to examine a component of the recreational (and aesthetic) value of two lakes in the "Highland Lakes" chain. The study addresses the implicit recreational and aesthetic (RA) price placed on Lakes Austin and Travis by homeowners living near the lakes. It also examines the relationship between lake management practices and the value of lake front properties.Item Evaluation of "Dry Year Option" Water Transfers from Agricultural to Urban Use(Texas Water Resources Institute, 1997-04) Yu, Kang; Chowdhury, Manzoor; Keplinger, Keith; Jones, Lonnie L.; Lacewell, Ronald D.; McCarl, Bruce A.This study investigated the economics of an Edwards Aquifer region "dry-year option" buyout directed toward decreasing agricultural water use in an effort to augment springflow. The research involved several phases. First, we applied crop growth simulation models to quantify the expected yield of major crops by weather year for alternative irrigation strategies. Second, crop enterprise budgets were developed for these strategies for entry into a farm level simulation model. Third, equations were developed which predicted the monthly springflow implications of changes in agricultural water use. Fourth, a "dry-year" agricultural model which predicted the agricultural consequences of exercise of various forms of the dry-year option was developed. Fifth, a model and literature-based evaluation was undertaken to arrive at a definition of the term "dry-year option". Sixth, the agricultural model was used to determine willingness to sell water at alternative prices. Seventh, a regional input-output model was developed to allow estimates of regional impacts of the dry-year option. Eighth, the input-output model was used to estimate the effect of water transfers on local communities, by sector. Ninth, the proposal that there should be compensation to third parties was examined. Tenth, the LP model was put in a form for delivery to the sponsor and a training workshop was scheduled. Eleventh, data on the nonagricultural demand for water were developed.Item Impacts of Recreational and Commercial Fishing and Coastal Resource-Based Tourism on Regional and State Economies(Texas Water Resources Institute, 2001-05) Tanyeri-Abur, Aysen; Jones, Lonnie L.This study estimates the regional and statewide economic impacts of recreational and commercial fishing and bay and estuary related recreational activities in the six bay and estuary systems along the Texas Gulf Coast. The study area covers six individual Texas bay and estuaries, including the Sabine-Neches estuary, the Trinity-San Jacinto estuary, the Lavaca-Tres Palacios estuary, the Guadalupe estuary, the Nueces-Mission- Aransas estuary, and the Laguna Madre estuary. Separate analyses were conducted for each estuary to estimate direct and total economic impacts of the recreation-related and commercial fishing sectors. In the Texas Water Development Board definition of estuaries, some counties are included in more than one estuary. To avoid double counting, a summary analysis was conducted separately for the Texas Gulf Coast region to estimate aggregate impacts. The estuaries along the Texas Gulf Coast vary in terms of their size, population, and economic activity. Table 1.1 presents population, wage and employment data in the six estuaries. The smallest estuary regions are the Lavaca-Tres Palacios and the Guadalupe, in terms of population and employment. The Trinity-San Jacinto estuary region is the largest in terms of economic activity as well as population, since both the cities of Houston and Galveston are included in this area. There are 26 counties included in the six bay and estuary systems that include several large metropolitan areas. In 1995, the population for all 26 counties was 5,155,700 people.